Data as of: Friday, October 2, 2026 close (weekend edition) Issued: Saturday, October 3, 2026 Evidence key: CONFIRMED (primary source), REPORTED (multiple outlets), RUMORED (unverified market reporting), ANALYTICAL (inference).
Week in one line: The global bond selloff crested mid-week — 10Y UST hit 5.34% (highest since 2002), 10Y Bund 3.65% (since 2009), 10Y JGB 3.10% (since 1996), 30Y gilt 6.03% (since 1998) — before a soft US jobs report and French fiscal stress triggered a Friday flight-to-safety. Central banks are mostly hiking or on hold-hawkish (Fed, ECB, BoE-leaning, BoJ, RBA, SARB, BanRep, BoK), with only a few still easing (Brazil, Israel, Argentina).
The day in brief
Policy rates
| Central bank | Rate | Current | Last change | Next decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | Fed funds target | 3.75–4.00% | +25bp Sep 16, 2026 (unanimous) | Oct 27–28 |
| ECB | Deposit facility | 2.50% | +25bp Sep 10 (2nd hike of 2026) | Oct 29 |
| BoE | Bank Rate | 3.75% | Held Sep 17 (6–3 vote; 3 wanted 4%) | ~Nov 5 |
| BoJ | Overnight call target | 1.25% | +25bp Sep 18 (7–2) | Oct 29–30 |
| PBOC | 1Y / 5Y LPR | 3.00% / 3.50% | Held 16th straight month | ~Oct 20 |
| RBA | Cash rate | 4.60% | +25bp Sep 29 (4th hike of 2026) | Nov 3 |
| RBNZ | OCR | 2.75% | +25bp Sep 2 (2nd straight) | Oct 28 |
| BoC | Overnight | 2.25% | Held Sep 2 (7th straight hold) | Oct 28 |
| SNB | Policy rate | — | Not verified this edition | — |
| Banxico | Overnight | 6.50% | Held Sep 24 (3rd hold) | Nov 12* |
| Copom (Brazil) | Selic | 13.75% | −25bp Sep 16 (5th cut) | Early Nov |
| BanRep (Colombia) | Policy rate | 12.25% | +25bp Sep 30 (surprise) | Oct 30* |
| Chile | TPM | 4.50% | Held early Sep | Oct 21* |
| CBRT (Turkey) | 1-wk repo | 37% | Held Sep 10 (5th hold) | Oct 22 |
| SARB | Repo | 7.25% | +25bp Sep 23 (unanimous) | Nov 19* |
| BI (Indonesia) | BI Rate | 5.75% | Held Sep 23 | Oct 21* |
| BoK | Base rate | 3.00% | +25bp Aug 27 | October (hold expected) |
| RBI | Repo | 5.25% | — | Oct 7 (~60% expect +25bp) |
| BoI (Israel) | Policy rate | 3.25% | −25bp (3rd straight cut, surprise) | Nov 23* |
| SAMA | Repo | 4.50% | +25bp Sep 16 | — |
| UAE | Base rate | 3.90% | +25bp Sep 16 | — |
* Approximate/next scheduled; not confirmed to the day.
Overnight / funding rates
| Rate | Latest | Note |
|---|---|---|
| SOFR | 3.87% (Oct 1 print) | −3bp; ON RRP just $0.3bn (post quarter-end) — reserves ample, no funding stress |
| €STR / SONIA / SARON / HONIA | O/N unchanged w/w | Per weekly money-market tracker; INR MIFOR O/N spiked +118bp w/w (flag) |
Benchmark 10Y yields, Friday Oct 2 close
| Market | 10Y close | Week | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| US | 5.276% | +9.6bp w/w | Thu high 5.342% (highest since 2002); +112bp YTD; 5th straight up-week |
| Germany | ~3.45% | −8bp Fri | Intra-week 3.653% (highest since mid-2009); fell on safe-haven bid |
| UK | 5.323% | −10bp Fri | Intra-week 5.51% (highest since Jul 2007); still 23bp above UST |
| France (OAT) | ~4.90% | −1bp Fri | Near 5% (highest since 2002); OAT–Bund 149bp intraday — widest since 2012 |
| Japan | ~3.06–3.10% | — | Highest since Aug 1996; 2Y at 1.95% (31Y high); 30Y 4.165% |
| Korea | 4.352% | −8.7bp Fri | Fell after govt cut Oct issuance ₩5tn |
| South Africa | 9.05% | — | — |
United States — hawkish Fed, soft jobs, long-end carnage then relief
FOMC hiked Sep 16 (12–0) to 3.75–4.00% — first hike since Jul 2023, under Chair Kevin Warsh. Dot plot median end-2026: 4.1% (up from 3.8% in June); 16 of 18 officials see one more hike this year. Warsh: inflation “too high… for too long”; financial conditions “nowhere near restrictive.” SEP: 2026 GDP 2.3%, PCE 3.7%, unemployment 4.1%. Statement dropped the “supply shocks from energy” line; balance sheet to “maintain ample reserves.” [index: plus500.com; finance.biggo.com; am.jpmorgan.com]
September NFP (Oct 2): +29K vs ~90K expected — unemployment 4.2% (from 4.1%); July revised to −10K, August 162K→133K; AHE +3.0% y/y. October-hike odds fell to ~34% (from ~70% a week earlier); December hike remains the base case (GSAM: hike “effectively removed” for October, one more in December still expected). OIS: ~23.5bp priced through the Oct meeting, 38bp through year-end; SOFR futures terminal ~4.305%. [index: froggyweb/Reuters; seekingalpha; mnimarkets]
Treasury selloff peaked Thursday. 10Y hit 5.342%, 30Y 5.683% (24-year highs). Friday: 10Y −6bp to ~5.18–5.28% depending on print (DJN/Tradeweb 3pm close 5.276%), 30Y 5.57%, 2Y 4.73%. Drivers: hawkish Fed repricing, Iran-war energy shock, US fiscal/debt anxiety, resilient data (Atlanta Fed Q3 GDP tracking +5% AR; ISM mfg 57.0 with prices-paid soaring), and term premium — inflation expectations stayed stable, so the move was real yields + term premium. [index: morningstar/DJN; indexbox/CNBC; fortemfin]
Supply: Treasury used its full $6bn buyback limit on Oct 1 (bought back deeply discounted 2041/2042 bonds; $46.4bn offered). October auctions ahead: $39bn 10Y, $22bn 30Y; Q4 net marketable borrowing projected $628bn. September 10Y auction (Sep 9): 4.834% high, B/C 2.71 — acceptable, not a demand failure. [index: mitrade; louisvilleheraldpost]
Real-economy bite: Freddie Mac 30Y mortgage 7.28% (+25bp w/w, biggest 1-wk jump since Oct 2022, highest since Nov 2023). [index: unbiasedheadlines]
Euro area — ECB leaning hawkish, France is the stress point
ECB hiked Sep 10 (second hike of 2026) to a 2.50% deposit rate on war-driven energy inflation; Reuters sources flagged another move possible as early as Oct 29. Eurozone September CPI (released Oct 2): 3.8% y/y (from 3.2%, vs 3.6% expected; highest since Sep 2023), core 2.5%. Markets price one more 25bp hike by December (~24% chance of a second), deposit rate ~2.8% by year-end and ~3.4% by late 2027. Schnabel: “coming months” decisive for judging the energy shock. [index: indexbox/Reuters; tradingeconomics; DJN via tradingview]
France — the week’s sovereign-risk epicenter. The Oct 1 Budget Act for 2027 targets a 5.0% deficit (from 5.4% in 2026; would be 6.5% without measures), debt 119%→~122% of GDP, record €340bn net bond issuance (€28bn more than 2026), debt service €72.9bn. Markets hated it: OAT–Bund blew out to 149bp intraday Friday (widest since 2012), from ~84bp in early September; OAT 10Y near 5% (highest since 2002). Scope cut France to A+ (stable) in September. ING sees a test of 150bp; Le Pen/Mélenchon 2027 election tail risk (Mélenchon floated converting BdF-held bonds into zero-coupon perpetuals). Safe-haven flow crushed Bunds (3.45% Friday, −8bp) while OATs barely budged — textbook fragmentation. EUR/USD ~1.12, a 16-month low. [index: DJN via tradingview; ING; thefinancialeconomy; continuumeconomics]
United Kingdom — gilt stress + QT redesign
BoE held 3.75% on Sep 17 (6–3); dissenters Greene, Mann, Pill wanted 4%. CPI 3.1% in August; the Bank now forecasts inflation near 3.75% by end-2026, ~4% in early 2027. [index: securities.io]
Big QT redesign: BoE voted 9–0 to stop outright long-dated gilt sales and pause ALL active sales until April, while consulting on transferring sale operations to the DMO. Plan: run the £488bn gilt stock to zero by Sep 2034 — £120bn (2049+) retained permanently to back banknotes, £222bn allowed to mature by 2034, £146bn sold actively (~£20bn/yr). Average unwind ~£46bn/yr incl. maturities vs £70bn pace of the past year. Analysts estimate the long-end supply overhang had added ~70bp to the curve. [index: edgen.tech; particle.news]
Gilts: 10Y hit 5.51% (highest since Jul 2007), 30Y crossed 6.03% (first since Jan 1998) mid-week; Friday −10bp to 5.32%. UK 10Y remains the highest in the G7 and ~23bp above Treasuries — with sterling falling (GBP/USD ~1.32), the classic signature of a fiscal risk premium, not carry attraction. Markets price BoE hikes in Nov/Dec plus another in February (LSEG: four hikes by Jul 2027). Chancellor Healey’s first Budget is Oct 28 (tax rises expected); higher yields have erased ~£10bn of fiscal headroom; DMO to sell ~£250bn gilts this FY. [index: brusselssignal; tradingnews; tradingeconomics]
Japan — BoJ accelerating, JGBs at 30-year yield highs
BoJ hiked Sep 18 (7–2) to 1.25% — highest since 1995, and only 3 months after the June hike (fastest cadence of the cycle). Dissenters Asada, Sato. Ueda: underlying inflation approaching 2% with overshoot risk; “will continue to raise.” The Sep 30 Summary of Opinions showed some members wanting to accelerate if prices deviate upward. Reuters poll: 1.5% by Mar 2027. Next: Oct 29–30 with the Outlook Report. [index: cadencemacro; DJN via tradingview; financecalendar]
JGBs: 10Y touched 3.095% (highest since Aug 1996); 2Y 1.95% (31-year high); 30Y 4.165% — driven by sticky services inflation, the UST selloff spillover, a weak US 5Y auction, and a soft yen. Watch the narrowing US–Japan rate gap for carry-trade unwind risk. [index: finimize/Reuters]
China & Asia-Pacific
China: PBOC held LPRs a 16th month (1Y 3.00%, 5Y 3.50%). No easing while the Fed/ECB/BoJ hike; Pan Gongsheng calls slower loan growth “the new normal.” Offshore yuan ~6.69/USD (strongest since Jul 2022); the US–China 10Y yield premium sits near a record high. [index: tradingview/seekingalpha; kelofm/Reuters]
Australia: RBA hiked Sep 29 (unanimous, 4th of 2026) to 4.60% (highest since Oct 2011), explicitly citing the broadened Middle East conflict and energy prices “much higher than assumed in August.” Another hike Nov 3 is priced. [index: morningstar/DJN]
New Zealand: RBNZ hiked to 2.75% Sep 2; Q2 CPI 4.1%, unemployment 5.6% (decade high). Oct 28 is a close call — ANZ expects a hike and a 3.50% terminal; Westpac/Kiwibank urge pause. Oil is 40%+ above the RBNZ’s Q4 assumption. [index: blackarrow; mpamag]
Korea: BoK at 3.00% after back-to-back hikes; October meeting expected to hold (Sep CPI 2.9%, core 2.8%). Notably, the finance ministry cut October bond issuance by ~₩5tn (₩17tn→₩12tn) to contain surging yields — supply management as a policy tool; KTB 10Y fell 8.7bp Friday to 4.352%. [index: ajupress; infomaxai]
India: RBI decision Oct 7 — ~60% of economists expect a first hike since Feb 2023 (+25bp to 5.50%). Aug CPI 4.82% (3rd month above target), Brent >$100, rupee −6% YTD, Q1 GDP ~8%. [index: jagranjosh; tradingview]
Indonesia: BI held at 5.75% (Sep 23) after +100bp May–June; Aug CPI 3.19% on volatile food. [index: rancakmedia]
Latin America
Brazil: Copom cut 25bp to 13.75% Sep 16 (5th straight, easing cycle from March = 125bp) — on the same day the Fed hiked. Sep 24 policy report: 2026 GDP cut to 1.8%, inflation kept at 5.2% with a 90% probability of breaching the 4.5% tolerance ceiling late 2026. Next Copom early November, days after the Lula vs. Flávio Bolsonaro runoff. [index: wixx/Reuters; particle.news]
Mexico: Banxico held at 6.50% Sep 24 (unanimous, 3rd hold) but dropped its hold-guidance and explicitly said it “would not have to react mechanically” to Fed hikes — formal decoupling. Mid-Sep inflation 3.42% (core 3.79%); peso at 17.75/USD, weakest since April. [index: wncy/Reuters; bbvaresearch]
Colombia — surprise: BanRep hiked 25bp to 12.25% on Sep 30 (4–2–1 split), resuming tightening as August inflation rebounded to 6.2%. Separately, BanRep cancelled its IMF Flexible Credit Line after the IMF judged the fiscal framework too weak to qualify — a notable sovereign-credibility event. [index: centralbanking; scotiabank]
Chile: held at 4.50% (unanimous). Peru’s BCRP opened the door to hikes. [index: mnimarkets]
Argentina: easing continued — the 1-day peso repo was reportedly cut 300bp to 22% after Milei’s midterm win; rates down >50% in 2026; peso +7% since October elections; inflation still ~31–33% y/y; reserves $44.7bn. (Mixed-vintage sources — treat precisely.) [index: nearshoreamericas; news.bloomberglaw]
EMEA EM & Gulf
Turkey: CBRT held at 37% Sep 10 (5th hold); corridor 35.5–40%; end-2026 inflation forecast raised to 28% (from 26%). But the effective stance eased: overnight rates fell ~300bp after repo auctions resumed — stealth easing via liquidity. September CPI due Oct 5; next meeting Oct 22. [index: turkishminute; finimize]
South Africa: SARB hiked 25bp to 7.25% Sep 23 (unanimous, 2nd hike of 2026); prime 10.75%. Kganyago cited a “large, negative and persistent global supply shock” (Iran/Strait of Hormuz, Yemen/Red Sea, Russia-Ukraine). Aug CPI 4.4%; headline seen >5% into early 2027, back to the 3% target by end-2027. [index: moneyweb]
Israel: BoI cut 25bp to 3.25% (3rd straight cut, a surprise) — inflation only ~1.5–1.9% thanks to a super-strong shekel (<3.0/USD, strongest since 1995). The BoI is now buying FX to weaken the shekel as exporters buckle. Easing into a global hiking cycle — the mirror image of everyone else. [index: ainvest]
Gulf: mechanical pass-through of the Fed hike — SAMA repo 4.50%, UAE base rate 3.90%, Oman 4.50%, Qatar/Bahrain +25bp; Kuwait unchanged (basket peg). [index: tradingview/Reuters]
Canada: BoC held 2.25% Sep 2 (7th hold); CPI 3.0% (gasoline-driven), core ~2%; Q2 GDP +3.3%. Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Canadian goods in September; Canada retaliated dollar-for-dollar. [index: bankofcanada.ca]
Credit, funding & financial conditions
- No funding stress: SOFR 3.87%, ON RRP $0.3bn — reserves ample; IMF says global bond markets “functioning in an orderly manner.” The selloff is about price, not plumbing. [index: helious; patreon/IMF]
- Credit held firm but is starting to chatter: IG spreads ~77bp, HY ~282bp (multi-year tights); IG yields >6% (first since 2023). But global credit spreads widened ~5bp this week (most since March) to the widest in six months (Bloomberg); the CCC–BB gap hit 787bp (highest since the 2022 tightening cycle) — stress concentrated in the weakest credits; jumbo deals (SoftBank late-Sep, Paramount Skydance/WBD) performed poorly; the MOVE index spiked >20% on Wednesday (biggest 1-day jump since 1990). JPMorgan: IG spreads ~7bp too tight vs. vol history. [index: DJN via tradingview; raymondjames; businessmirror/Bloomberg]
- Commodities: Brent $101.85/bbl (+67% YTD); gold $4,189/oz (−3.4% YTD — notably not rallying into the risk-off, with real yields this high). [index: linkedin daily update]
Cross-market synthesis
One shock, three channels. The dominant macro force is the Iran-war energy shock (Brent +67% YTD, Strait of Hormuz at risk, gas-price pass-through): it is simultaneously (a) lifting headline inflation everywhere (eurozone CPI 3.8%, UK CPI forecast ~4% early 2027, Korea/India/Indonesia food-fuel pressure), (b) forcing DM central banks to hike into the shock (Fed, ECB, RBA, BoK, SARB, BanRep all moved in September), and (c) blowing out term premia as investors demand compensation for fiscal + geopolitical uncertainty.
Policy is desynchronizing from the cycle. The Fed hiked while payrolls printed +29K; the RBA hiked on an external shock; Banxico formally decoupled from the Fed; Brazil eased the same day the Fed hiked; Israel is cutting into a global hiking wave. This is not a coordinated cycle — it’s each central bank choosing between inflation credibility and growth, and most are choosing credibility.
The long end is where the pain concentrates. 10Y yields sit at 15–30-year highs across the US, Germany, UK, Japan and France. With inflation expectations stable, the rise is real yields + term premium: markets want to be paid for (i) higher-for-longer short-rate paths, (ii) record sovereign issuance (US Q4 $628bn; France €340bn; UK £250bn), and (iii) QT withdrawal of the price-insensitive buyer (note the BoE’s attempt to reduce its QT footprint at the long end, and Korea’s outright issuance cut — debt managers are now actively managing the supply side).
Sovereign risk is repricing within the euro area. The OAT–Bund spread at ~149bp (widest since 2012) with Bunds rallying and OATs lagging is a fragmentation signal; ECB tightening expectations are colliding with French fiscal reality. Watch whether this forces the ECB to slow its hiking path — Deutsche Bank already notes financial-conditions tightening “doing part of the ECB’s job.”
What to watch: whether Friday’s relief (soft NFP, lower oil, flight-to-safety) extends or the term-premium grind resumes; the Oct 14 US CPI as the arbiter of the October FOMC; and any sign that credit’s resilience cracks — the CCC tail and jumbo-deal indigestion are the early warnings.
Forward calendar
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Oct 5 | Turkey September CPI; RBI MPC begins |
| Oct 7 | RBI decision (hike expected); FOMC September minutes (expected) |
| Oct 14 | US September CPI (8:30am ET) — key for Oct FOMC |
| Oct 21 | Chile, Indonesia (BI) decisions (approx) |
| Oct 22 | CBRT decision (hold expected; ING sees cuts starting Q4) |
| Oct 27–28 | FOMC; RBNZ (Oct 28); UK Budget (Oct 28) |
| Oct 29 | ECB (hike possible); BoJ Oct 29–30 (Outlook Report) |
| Oct 30 | BanRep (approx) |
| Nov 3 | RBA (hike priced); US midterm elections |
| Early Nov | Copom (after Brazil presidential runoff); BoE ~Nov 5 |
| Dec 8–9 | FOMC (December hike still base case) |
Could not verify / open questions
- RBI repo rate — one source (samco.in) claims the repo is already 5.5% after a cut; all other sources say 5.25% with the Oct 7 decision pending. Treated samco as unreliable; needs confirmation after Oct 7.
- SNB policy rate — no current information found this edition.
- €STR / SONIA / TONA levels — only w/w changes found (flat/flat/+25bp); exact levels not established.
- Argentina’s current policy rate — sources of mixed vintage (repo reportedly 22% post-midterms; inflation ~31–33%); treat as approximate.
- This week’s US 10Y/30Y coupon auction results — search returned stale/mixed results; only the $6bn buyback and bill auctions were cleanly confirmed.
- ECB deposit rate at 2.50% — inferred from “second hike of 2026” + TD Securities’ “final hike to 2.75% in December”; not directly confirmed in a primary source this edition.
- FOMC minutes release date — assumed Oct 7 (three weeks after Sep 16–17 meeting); not confirmed.
Sources
All read via web index on Oct 3–4, 2026. Key URLs (see notes/ for per-topic detail):
- FOMC: plus500.com/en/newsandmarketinsights/fomc-meeting-what-you-need-to-know; finance.biggo.com/news/9c6ed294-a02d-4185-8ea4-199c188b2c18; am.jpmorgan.com (GFICC FOMC statement review); mnimarkets.com STIR Oct 2
- US data: froggyweb.com (Reuters NFP instant view); seekingalpha.com NFP; bls.gov CPI release schedule; fxify.com trading-desk brief
- Treasuries: morningstar.com/news/dow-jones 10Y data-talk Oct 2; morningstar.com/news/dow-jones long-dated highs Oct 1; indexbox.io Treasury yields Oct 2; fortemfin.com weekly commentary; mitrade.com buyback; helious.io SOFR/bill auction notes; unbiasedheadlines.com mortgage rates
- ECB/euro: indexbox.io ECB Oct-hike story; fxrate.org Fed-ECB gap; tradingeconomics.com Bund news; tradingview.com DJN Bund/OAT/Friday updates; think.ing.com France budget; thefinancialeconomy.com French bond yields; continuumeconomics.com France fiscal
- UK: securities.io BoE hold; edgen.tech BoE QT halt; brusselssignal.eu UK borrowing costs; tradingeconomics.com gilt news
- Japan: cadencemacro.com BoJ Sep 18 presser transcript; tradingview.com DJN BoJ summary of opinions; finimize.com JGB yields
- Asia: tradingview.com PBOC LPR hold; kelofm.com Reuters PBOC preview; morningstar.com/DJN RBA hike; blackarrow.co.nz RBNZ; ajupress.com Korea issuance cut; rancakmedia.com BI; jagranjosh.com RBI preview
- LatAm: wixx.com Reuters Brazil Copom; particle.news Brazil RPM; wncy.com Reuters Banxico; bbvaresearch.com Banxico; centralbanking.com BanRep hike; nearshoreamericas.com Argentina
- EMEA/Gulf: turkishminute.com CBRT; finimize.com Turkey; moneyweb.co.za SARB; ainvest.com Bank of Israel; tradingview.com Reuters GCC hikes; bankofcanada.ca Sep 2 statement
- Credit: tradingview.com DJN MarketWatch credit Oct 3; raymondjames.com weekly strategy; businessmirror.com.ph Bloomberg credit
- Working notes: notes/us.md, notes/europe-uk.md, notes/japan-asia.md, notes/latam-emea-credit.md