Data as of: Friday, October 2, 2026 close Issued: Saturday, October 3, 2026 Evidence key: CONFIRMED (primary source), REPORTED (multiple outlets), RUMORED (unverified market reporting), ANALYTICAL (inference).
The Reserve Bank of Australia hiked to 4.60% on September 29 — unanimous, its fourth of 2026, the highest since October 2011 — explicitly citing the broadened Middle East conflict and energy prices “much higher than assumed in August.” Another hike on November 3 is priced.
India’s RBI decides October 7 with about 60% of economists expecting a first hike since February 2023, 25bp to 5.50%: August CPI ran 4.82%, the third month above target, Brent is above $100, the rupee is down 6% year to date, and first-quarter GDP printed near 8%.
Around them: the Bank of Korea sits at 3.00% after back-to-back hikes and is expected to hold in October, but the finance ministry cut October bond issuance by ₩5 trillion to contain surging yields — supply management as policy. The RBNZ hiked to 2.75% with oil 40% above its fourth-quarter assumption; October 28 is a close call. Bank Indonesia held at 5.75%. The PBOC held loan prime rates a sixteenth straight month while the US–China 10-year premium sits near a record high — no easing while everyone else hikes.