Data as of: Friday, October 2, 2026 close Issued: Saturday, October 3, 2026 Evidence key: CONFIRMED (primary source), REPORTED (multiple outlets), RUMORED (unverified market reporting), ANALYTICAL (inference).
The global bond selloff crested mid-week and the records fell across the board: the 10-year Treasury hit 5.342% (highest since 2002), the 10-year Bund 3.653% (since 2009), the 10-year JGB 3.10% (since 1996), and the 30-year gilt 6.03% (since 1998). Then Friday’s soft US jobs report and French fiscal stress triggered a flight to safety, and the 10-year settled near 5.28% — still up 9.6bp on the week, its fifth straight up-week, and up 112bp year to date.
The anatomy of the move matters. Inflation expectations stayed stable through the selloff, which means the rise is real yields plus term premium: investors want compensation for higher-for-longer short-rate paths, record sovereign supply (US Q4 net borrowing projected at $628 billion; France’s record €340 billion; UK gilts near £250 billion this fiscal year), and quantitative tightening’s steady withdrawal of the price-insensitive buyer.
Debt managers are now actively managing the supply side. Korea cut October bond issuance by ₩5 trillion to contain surging yields. The Bank of England voted to stop outright long-dated gilt sales entirely. The selloff is about price, not plumbing — SOFR at 3.87% with the overnight reverse repo facility at just $0.3 billion shows no funding stress — but price is doing real damage: the 30-year US mortgage rate jumped 25bp in a week to 7.28%, its biggest one-week move since October 2022.