Data as of: Friday, October 2, 2026 close Issued: Saturday, October 3, 2026 Evidence key: CONFIRMED (primary source), REPORTED (multiple outlets), RUMORED (unverified market reporting), ANALYTICAL (inference).
September 16 was the split screen: Brazil’s Copom cut 25bp to 13.75% — its fifth straight cut — on the same day the Fed hiked. Brazil’s own policy report now sees 2026 GDP at 1.8% with a 90% probability of breaching the 4.5% inflation tolerance ceiling late in the year. The next Copom lands days after the presidential runoff.
Elsewhere the desynchronization runs in every direction. Banxico held at 6.50% but dropped its hold-guidance and explicitly said it “would not have to react mechanically” to Fed hikes — formal decoupling. Colombia’s BanRep surprised with a 25bp hike to 12.25% and separately cancelled its IMF Flexible Credit Line after the Fund judged the fiscal framework too weak to qualify, a notable sovereign-credibility event. The Bank of Israel cut to 3.25%, its third straight, with inflation near 1.5–1.9% on a super-strong shekel — easing into a global hiking cycle as the mirror image of everyone else.
The pattern: the Iran-war energy shock is lifting headline inflation everywhere, and developed-market central banks are hiking into it — Fed, ECB, RBA, Bank of Korea, SARB all moved in September. Policy is desynchronizing from domestic cycles, not from each other.