Data as of: Friday, October 2, 2026 close Issued: Saturday, October 3, 2026 Evidence key: CONFIRMED (primary source), REPORTED (multiple outlets), RUMORED (unverified market reporting), ANALYTICAL (inference).
Copper ended the week at about $14,289 a tonne on the LME, down 2% on the week but still up nearly 30% year on year. The price action sided with macro — dollar strength and real-yield pressure — against a physical market that keeps tightening. SHFE warehouse stocks have fallen 79% in four months to 38,744 tonnes, the lowest since January 2024. Chilean August output dropped 12.8% year on year. Yet Chinese industrial demand is soft and high energy costs from the Iran conflict are biting manufacturers.
The rest of the base complex fell harder: aluminum down 5.6%, zinc 5.3%, nickel 5.2% on the week. Positioning is the vulnerability — COMEX copper carries a 78,058-contract managed-money net long into a softening demand picture.
Iron ore is the outright weak link. Singapore 62% Fe spot sits at $92.30 a tonne, down 5.9% on the week and sub-$100 for six straight sessions. Only about 8% of Chinese blast furnaces were profitable in mid-September, port inventories are building toward 150 million tonnes, and the industry association CISA is urging mills to stop buying fresh ore. Goldman sees $90–95 a tonne as near-term support. Capesize freight rates, down 12.8% on the week, are tracking the ore weakness directly.