Data as of: Friday, October 2, 2026 close Issued: Saturday, October 3, 2026 Evidence key: CONFIRMED (primary source), REPORTED (multiple outlets), RUMORED (unverified market reporting), ANALYTICAL (inference).
This is a product-led market. European low-sulfur gasoil traded about $77.44 a barrel above Brent mid-week, a record, and OPIS data shows the crack has nearly doubled since roughly $46 a barrel in November 2025. ICE gasoil for October 2026 changed hands near $1,459.50 a tonne on September 23, up about $72 on the day. In the US, diesel broke records above $6.50 a gallon — AAA’s trucker price hit $6.52, up 76% year on year. Refiners are earning more than $100 a barrel on diesel against a normal $20 to $30; Valero and Marathon margins have roughly doubled.
The squeeze has four overlapping drivers. Hormuz restrictions are locking Gulf diesel and jet exports inside the region. Russia extended its diesel export ban through October 2026 after Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries. China suspended product exports for October. And Washington has leaned on Germany and France to draw emergency diesel stocks, while denying reports it is considering a US diesel export ban.
ARA diesel stocks sit at their lowest seasonal levels in years, and demand is inelastic — trucks, harvest, and heating do not flex on price. Friday brought relief: European diesel margins fell 7% Thursday and gasoil futures dropped more than 5% Friday on the G7/IEA release news. But the crack remains historically extreme, and winter heating risk is building — US heating oil is $4.56 a gallon, up 104% year on year.