Data as of: October 3, 2026 Issued: Saturday, October 3, 2026 Evidence key: CONFIRMED (primary source), REPORTED (multiple outlets), RUMORED (unverified market reporting), ANALYTICAL (inference).
France has had no stable government since Lecornu’s resignation around September 16, just 26 days into the job. Macron is searching for his third prime minister of the year while the opposition demands either new elections or his own resignation, and dissolving the Assembly is back on the table. The 2026 budget impasse — €44 billion in cuts, pension reform suspended to 2027 — sits unresolved under a caretaker government.
Germany is worse. Infratest-Dimap’s October 1 poll put Chancellor Merz at 10% approval against 88% disapproval, the lowest ever recorded for a chancellor. The CDU fell below the 5% threshold in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania — a first in 77 years of the republic — and AfD now leads national polling at 27–28%. President Steinmeier has reportedly taken the unusual step of urging ministers to hold the coalition together.
In London, the new Burnham government faces its own test: EU pressure to match countervailing duties on Chinese EVs after Chinese brands captured 23% of UK sales in September. The EU steering capacity that all of this requires — on Ukraine, on fiscal reform, on China — is degrading in real time.