Data as of: Friday, October 2, 2026 close Issued: Saturday, October 3, 2026 Evidence key: CONFIRMED (primary source), REPORTED (multiple outlets), RUMORED (unverified market reporting), ANALYTICAL (inference).
Lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed September around 123,400–126,350 yuan a tonne — down 22% in the month alone and about 30% from the May peak, though still up 67.8% year on year. Two triggers: an SMM inventory revision in early September and China ending the consumption-tax exemption for lithium-ion batteries (2% from September 1, 2026, rising to 4% in 2027).
The important distinction is what did not happen. Chinese lithium imports rose 4% month on month in June to 183kt LCE, and European EV sales were up 41% year on year in June. This reads as an inventory and positioning unwind, not demand destruction. Still, the forward curve is adjusting structurally lower on expected Australian restarts, and cobalt tells a parallel policy-driven story — down 29% from its first-quarter peak near $58,000 a tonne as fears unwind around the DRC’s 96,600-tonne export quota that had engineered a fourfold rally from February 2025 lows.