Data as of: Friday, October 2, 2026 close Issued: Saturday, October 3, 2026 Evidence key: CONFIRMED (primary source), REPORTED (multiple outlets), RUMORED (unverified market reporting), ANALYTICAL (inference).
Sugar was the week’s agricultural standout, up 7.6% to about 19.9 cents a pound — up 10.2% on the month and 20.9% year on year. The long book is crowded: managed money holds 218,336 contracts net long, large relative to open interest. The test arrives in days with Brazil’s Center-South first-half September data; dealer surveys point to output up 15% year on year to 3.6 million tonnes. Long positioning against potentially bearish supply news is the tension to watch. (One source printed a conflicting −1.27% weekly move on mismatched timeframes; the snapshot read stands.)
Coffee is rebounding from deep lows — arabica up 4.4% on the week near 290.7 cents — with a policy wildcard attached: a planned Trump–Lula meeting on the 50% US tariff on Brazilian coffee. Cocoa fell for a third straight week; the October 16 third-quarter grind data is the demand verdict. Orange juice, down 9.2% on the week and 41% year on year, remains a structural bear market on supply recovery.
The weather story is El Nino, now given better than 90% odds of a very strong event lasting into early 2027. India’s monsoon finished 12.6% below normal — the weakest since 2015 — with drought across five states and below-normal October–December rains expected, putting rabi wheat and oilseed sowing at risk. Brazil is split: the north and center get a brief planting window before dry, 100°F-plus conditions October 7–15; the south is excessively wet. Argentina, at least, is getting good rains.