Data as of: Friday, October 2, 2026 close Issued: Saturday, October 3, 2026 Evidence key: CONFIRMED (primary source), REPORTED (multiple outlets), RUMORED (unverified market reporting), ANALYTICAL (inference).
The global gas market is pricing two different worlds. Henry Hub trades near $3.03–3.04 per MMBtu, insulated from the Hormuz shock since February: US output runs about 115 billion cubic feet a day, storage is on a path to a record near 3,985 Bcf by end-October, and LNG exports are capped around 16.5 Bcf a day. American gas is stranded cheap.
Europe is the mirror image. The Dutch TTF benchmark sits near €72–74 per MWh — roughly $24–25 per MMBtu, eight to nine times Henry Hub — after peaking at €84.07 on September 14, the first $1,000-per-thousand-cubic-meter print since December 2022. EU storage is about 71% full against a 90% November target and an 87% five-year average; Germany is at 50–57%. The causes stack: near-zero Russian pipeline supply plus Qatar’s force majeure since March 4, which took offline a producer of about 20% of global LNG whose volumes transit Hormuz. Europe is outbidding Asia for every spare cargo; China has exited the spot market into coal arbitrage.
The fertilizer link shows how far the damage spreads. At €72/MWh, TTF sits €17–19 above the roughly €55/MWh breakeven for EU ammonia production — European nitrogen output remains uneconomic. The Tampa ammonia settlement window of October 1–5 is the next nitrogen cost signal; August confirmed $870 a tonne.