Data as of: October 3, 2026 Issued: Saturday, October 3, 2026 Evidence key: CONFIRMED (primary source), REPORTED (multiple outlets), RUMORED (unverified market reporting), ANALYTICAL (inference).
Nine months after the US operation that captured Maduro, Venezuela is being rebuilt as a Western oil play. Acting president Delcy Rodríguez signed what Trump called the largest oil deal in history: 65 billion barrels across 17 fields under a new Hydrocarbons Law passed by the National Assembly in January, with 25-year terms, a 16% royalty, 34% income tax, and roughly $100 billion of pledged investment.
The majors are moving. Repsol regained operating control of Petroquiriquire in April; output is back above 1.1 million barrels a day; Chevron, Shell, ENI, and BP are all expanding. The commercial logic is straightforward — long-life barrels under fiscal terms designed to attract capital.
The political deficit is the risk. Rodríguez promised “inclusive elections” at the UN but set no date, while Nobel laureate María Corina Machado remains exiled and blocked from returning. Contract terms come from Venezuelan-side reporting; the full text has not been independently seen. These barrels will flow or stop on political decisions, not market ones.