Data as of: Friday, October 2, 2026 (Friday closes); weekend official statements through Sunday morning, October 4 Issued: Sunday, October 4, 2026 (America/Toronto) Evidence key: CONFIRMED (primary source), REPORTED (multiple outlets), RUMORED (unverified market reporting), ANALYTICAL (inference).
Copper slipped on the London Metal Exchange on Oct 1-2, with 3-month metal near $14,655 a tonne about ten days prior, though copper remains set for a third straight monthly gain. Aluminum fell to a two-month low. The weekly damage was broad: aluminum -5.6%, zinc -5.3%, nickel -5.2%, copper -2.5%. [REPORTED, Reuters/Binance]
The steel chain is worse: iron ore fell 5.9% on the week to about $91-92 a tonne, and only about 8% of Chinese blast furnaces are profitable — a distressed downstream that keeps a lid on restocking demand. [REPORTED, prior-edition data]
The correction is fundamentally confirmed rather than flow-driven: a 5.28% 10-year yield, an 18-month-high dollar, and soft Chinese industrial margins are all headwinds. The positioning question is whether fresh shorts are now crowded — Friday’s CFTC release (week ended Oct 6, out Oct 9) will show. [ANALYTICAL]