Data as of: Friday, October 2, 2026 (Friday closes); weekend official statements through Sunday morning, October 4 Issued: Sunday, October 4, 2026 (America/Toronto) Evidence key: CONFIRMED (primary source), REPORTED (multiple outlets), RUMORED (unverified market reporting), ANALYTICAL (inference).
CBOT wheat ended Friday near a six-week low and corn slipped 0.68% to $18.85 as US harvests advanced and funds kept selling, while soybeans also weakened, market reports showed. The tone is harvest pressure plus long liquidation: CFTC data for the week ended Sep 29 showed corn managed-money net longs cut from about 415,000 to 381,000 contracts after the Sep 30 stocks report knocked December corn down 4.1%. [REPORTED]
The setup into Friday’s WASDE (12:00 PM ET, Oct 9) is bearish-leaning on paper: StoneX’s pre-report survey put US soybean yields at a record 54.1 bushels per acre (4.65 billion bushels) and corn near record. But El Nino odds above 90% for a very strong event into early 2027 keep Southern Hemisphere weather risk on the table. [REPORTED]
With managed-money corn length already reduced, the positioning overhang is smaller than a month ago — a bearish WASDE surprise may find fewer longs left to liquidate, while a bullish surprise has more room to squeeze. [ANALYTICAL]