Data as of: Friday, October 2, 2026 (Friday closes); weekend official statements through Sunday morning, October 4 Issued: Sunday, October 4, 2026 (America/Toronto) Evidence key: CONFIRMED (primary source), REPORTED (multiple outlets), RUMORED (unverified market reporting), ANALYTICAL (inference).
March NY #11 sugar (SBH27) closed up 0.99 cents (+5.23%) on Friday, posting a one-and-a-half-year nearest-futures high, as weather concerns tied to El Nino spurred fund buying, Barchart reported. London sugar also rose. The rally extends a 7.6% weekly gain. [REPORTED, Barchart]
The fundamentals are tightening: the ISO gave a global deficit outlook on Sep 1, Covrig Analytics projects a 2026/27 deficit of 300,000 MT, India’s monsoon was the weakest since 2015 (-12.6%), and Brazil’s Unica reported lower output. India also allowed up to 1 MMT of raw sugar exports in August, capping some upside. [REPORTED]
With El Nino odds above 90% for a very strong event into early 2027, sugar has the clearest weather-driven upside in the softs complex. A weekly close above 20 cents a pound would open the door to a larger deficit rally. [REPORTED odds; inference ANALYTICAL]