Data as of: TreasuryDirect auction schedule; Friday, October 2 closes; Q4 borrowing target from prior reporting. Issued: Sunday, October 4, 2026 (America/Toronto). Evidence key: CONFIRMED (primary source), REPORTED (multiple outlets), RUMORED (unverified market reporting), ANALYTICAL (inference).
The Treasury’s official auction schedule confirms a heavy coupon week: Tuesday October 6, $58bn of 3-year notes; Wednesday October 7, $39bn of 10-year notes (9y10m reopening); Thursday October 8, $22bn of 30-year bonds (29y10m reopening) — alongside the usual bill calendar (CONFIRMED via TreasuryDirect). The September refunding already shrunk this week’s tenors slightly and cut longer-dated supply, but the absolute sizes remain the year’s heaviest (REPORTED context).
Context makes the test sharper. The 10Y closed Friday at 5.276%, up 9.6bp on the week after touching 5.342% Thursday — the highest since 2002 — and the 30Y closed at 5.57% (REPORTED). Q4 net marketable borrowing is targeted at $628bn, and Treasury used the full $6bn limit in its October 1 buyback (REPORTED). Any tailing in Wednesday’s 10Y or Thursday’s 30Y would confirm dealer balance-sheet fatigue at these yield levels and feed straight into term-premium repricing.
Also Wednesday at 2:00pm ET, FOMC minutes from the unanimous September 16 hike drop (CONFIRMED via market calendar). With markets pricing only ~34% of an October hike but holding a December hike as the base case, the minutes will be parsed for how the Committee reconciled a soft September payrolls print (+29k vs ~90k expected) with its tightening bias. The combination — refunding supply plus minutes on the same day — makes Wednesday the week’s US rates focal point.