December corn fell 1.1 percent to $5.11 a bushel on Friday, extending the selloff that began with the September 30 stocks report. Fund traders keep closing a managed-money net long that stood at almost 415,000 contracts in the last Commitments of Traders release — a crowded position being unwound into harvest pressure and a dry two-week harvest-weather forecast.
The debate is the October 9 WASDE’s yield number. StoneX put corn at 182.1 bushels an acre on a 16.115-billion-bushel crop — above the USDA’s September 178.5 — while warning that a move toward the Pro Farmer tour’s 173.2 would flip the market. August ethanol grind ran at an 8-year high and export inspections are off to their fastest start in 10 years, but cumulative sales lag last year by 31 percent.
Harvest is 18 percent done nationally but only 5 percent in Iowa after a record-wet September, and the dry forecast starting this weekend means harvest pressure builds exactly as the fund unwind runs its course. The tells into Friday: $5 psychological support, the $4.95 weekly low, and the CFTC’s Friday update on how much of the 415k long is left.