Brent front-month futures began the third quarter at $72 a barrel on July 1, the lowest since February 26, then climbed as military strikes resumed in the Middle East on July 7. Futures passed $100 on July 23 and again on September 9, peaking at $109 on September 15, while Brent spot prices reached as high as $132 around the same time. Prices averaged about $104 in the final two weeks of the quarter as markets weighed peace talks against the risk of a wider war.
US refineries ran at unseasonally high levels to capture the margins, averaging 95 percent utilization and processing the most crude for a third quarter since 2019. The quarterly average gasoline crack spread more than doubled its year-ago level, while distillate and jet fuel crack spreads almost tripled theirs, reflecting tight global supply after disruptions to refining in Russia, China and the Middle East.
Product inventories show the strain. As of the week ending September 25, US distillate inventories were 13 percent below the five-year average and gasoline 7 percent below, while jet fuel was 3 percent above. The EIA notes that slowing releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in September removed one more source of supply as the disruption continued.