The October Fed meeting is settled before it happens. New York Fed President Williams — the central bank’s de facto third-in-command — and Vice Chair Jefferson both emerged last week with dovish remarks drawing a line against consecutive rate hikes, and interest-rate futures rapidly shifted away from October-hike pricing after the weak September payrolls report (+29k). A December increase remains the base case.
Wednesday’s FOMC minutes from the September 15–16 meeting land at 2:00pm ET into the heaviest supply week in a while: $58 billion of 3-year notes on Tuesday, a $39 billion 10-year reopening on Wednesday, and a $22 billion 30-year reopening on Thursday. The 10-year closed Friday at 5.276 percent and touched 5.342 percent on Thursday — its highest since 2002 — with the 30-year at 5.57 percent. Whether demand holds at those levels, with the Q4 $628 billion net borrowing target already set, is the week’s cleanest market test.
The minutes matter because September’s decision was unanimous: a 25-basis-point hike to 3.75–4.00 percent under Chair Warsh, with the SEP median pointing to a 4.1 percent end-2026 rate. The market will parse how the committee framed the path from there — and whether the weak labor print and 5.34 percent long-end yields changed the December calculus.