Kpler data cited by Reuters put the seven-day moving average of Middle East crude exports — including the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman and Bab el-Mandeb — at 18.5 million barrels a day in the week to October 1. JPMorgan estimates Middle East exports have recovered to 98 percent of pre-war levels, as producers ramped up supplies through ship-to-ship transfers, alternative ports and pipelines.
The recovery explains the apparent contradiction in this morning’s data: OPEC+ quotas are frozen and official output remains well below target, yet physical barrels are reaching buyers. Saudi Aramco has sold millions of barrels since September through ship-to-ship transfers outside the Strait of Hormuz. Storage releases are another way to reconcile rising flows with stagnant production.
The workaround has a price. Rising Gulf exports are pushing ship-to-ship operations in the Gulf of Oman closer to capacity limits, keeping tanker demand and freight rates elevated, according to Kpler. The tanker freight proxy in the site’s market table rose 5.67 percent on Monday and is up 32.75 percent on the week. Aramco’s record OSP discount to Asia is effectively Riyadh paying part of that freight bill to keep its barrels competitive.
Brent faded to $101.46 on Monday, down 0.77 percent, with WTI at $89.77, down 1.47 percent — the market pricing recovering flows over fresh strikes, for now.