The Strait of Hormuz changed hands twice in 72 hours. Iran briefly opened the waterway on Friday, then shut it again, with the Revolutionary Guard Navy saying it will stay closed until the United States lifts its blockade on Iranian ports. President Trump responded that Washington would not be “blackmailed” over the waterway, and noted Friday that the blockade continues until a peace deal is agreed.
The closure was accompanied by continued attacks. UKMTO logged two projectile strikes on tankers on Friday and a third on Sunday — an engine-room hit with no injuries — and the Joint Maritime Information Center kept the strait at its SEVERE threat rating, with deliberate attacks rated highly likely. U.S. transits average about 30 vessels a day against a 2025 baseline of 138.
Behind the rhetoric sits a negotiating framework: Iran’s top negotiator has tied reopening to seven conditions rooted in the “Islamabad Memorandum,” and Tehran’s Supreme National Security Council said new U.S. proposals have been put forward and are under review. Trump told reporters “very good conversations” are happening — in the same week the Wall Street Journal reported he told aides to expect resumed bombing in November. The two timelines are incompatible, which is why the strait, not the battlefield, is where the war’s price is being set.