The global liquefied natural gas market is entering winter in its tightest position since 2022. October TTF futures at the Dutch hub reached about 84.07 euros per megawatt-hour on September 14, the first breach of the $1,000 per 1,000 cubic metres mark since December 2022. The Asian benchmark JKM touched a four-year high of $29.56 per MMBtu in September before easing toward $26.20 as a trickle of Qatari cargoes resumed transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
The tightness is structural, not seasonal. Qatar supplied nearly 20 percent of global LNG before the war, but Kpler data show only 70,000 tons, a single cargo, exited the Strait of Hormuz in August, against an average of 6.51 million tons a month in the run-up to February. Qatar’s energy minister has estimated the force majeure shortfall at about 12.8 million tons a year. Europe is paying up because it has little alternative: EU gas storage sits around 68 percent full, roughly 16 percentage points below the five-year average, and European LNG imports are on track to rise to 10.53 million tons in October from 7.98 million in September.
Asian buyers are instead stepping back. September LNG arrivals to Asia are estimated at 20.09 million tons, the weakest September since 2018 and down from 22.27 million a year earlier, as high prices push power producers toward coal. Morgan Stanley’s Martijn Rats notes that buyers in Pakistan and Bangladesh are still taking spot cargoes near $25 per MMBtu, prices that would have cleared them from the market in 2022, which means Europe will have to pay a steeper premium to secure winter supply. Some analysts see winter LNG surpassing $35 per MMBtu if cold weather arrives on thin storage.