OPEC and its allies agreed Sunday to keep oil production targets steady for November, extending a two-month pause that began at the September 6 virtual meeting. The decision covered the same seven core producers — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman — who will carry their September quotas into November at a combined 31.01 million barrels a day.
The formal decision matters less than the gap beneath it. The seven pumped about 25 million barrels a day in August, roughly 5 million below their February prewar level, according to OPEC data, and Gulf exports have run at 60 to 80 percent of normal through the Iran war. “Despite rising flows through the Strait of Hormuz, their output levels remain well below quota,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. “Consequently, the oil market remains tight.”
The group also pushed its 2027 production-capacity review — the basis for next year’s quotas — back to mid-November, saying the war has made future capacity too hard to estimate. Separately, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee warned that attacks on maritime routes and energy infrastructure could increase market volatility and affect supply. The seven meet again on November 1; the full ministerial and monitoring committee meet November 29.
Commercially, Saudi Aramco sent its own signal over the weekend: it cut its November Arab Light price for Asia by $3 a barrel, a cut that reads as the producer with the world’s best demand visibility pricing in demand destruction rather than supply loss. Brent’s December contract settled at $102.25 on Friday and traded at $101.53 early Monday.