Gold edged higher on Monday while silver outperformed, as Friday’s weak US jobs report continued to reprice Federal Reserve expectations. September payrolls rose just 29,000 against expectations of about 90,000, with unemployment ticking up to 4.2 percent — pushing the odds of an October Fed rate hike down to about 18 percent, from near 70 percent earlier in the week.
The relief has done little for bullion beyond stabilizing it. Treasury yields remain at multi-decade highs and a firm dollar keeps raising the cost of holding a non-yielding asset: the 10-year sat at 5.28 percent Monday and the dollar index at 102.25, near 18-month highs. Spot gold hovered around $4,135 an ounce after losing more than 3 percent last week.
The metal is range-bound between support and resistance, with the Fed’s October 27-28 meeting the next trigger. A clear signal that the hiking cycle is over, along with easing yields, could lift gold toward the top of its range; a hawkish tone or a fresh surge in yields would test the floor. Silver’s sharper Monday move reflects its smaller, more volatile market rather than a separate fundamental driver.