The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee announces its decision on Wednesday at 10:00am IST, and the polls have hardened decisively toward a 25-basis-point hike to 5.50 percent. Businessline’s survey of 12 bank chief economists finds 11 expecting the move — only Bank of Baroda’s Madan Sabnavis sees a hold — while a Moneycontrol poll of 19 economists and treasury heads finds a majority for +25bp, the Reuters poll of 61 economists sits at roughly 60 percent, and Business Standard’s at 8 of 10.
If it comes, it will be the first RBI rate increase since February 2023, ending a 125-basis-point cutting cycle and four straight holds at 5.25 percent. The macro case has assembled on three fronts: August CPI at 4.82 percent — the third straight month above the 4 percent target, with nearly half the basket rising 4 percent or more; the rupee past 96, down about 6 percent in 2026; and Brent triple digits squeezing an economy that imports over 80 percent of its crude. The Fed’s September hike narrowed the rate differential, and overnight funding stress — INR MIFOR up 118 basis points on the week — shows conditions are tightening ahead of the decision.
The market is already pricing the cycle: India’s 10-year yield sits near 7.18 percent, a 52-week high, with swaps implying about 90 basis points of hikes over the next year while economists mostly expect two — October and December. Six bank economists see the repo at 6.00 percent by the end of FY27. Governor Sanjay Malhotra’s tone matters as much as the 25 basis points: the August minutes showed the committee open to tightening if price pressures broadened, and they have.