Raw sugar extended its rally on Friday as weather risks prompted fresh fund buying. The March NY world sugar #11 contract closed up 0.99 cents, or 5.23 percent, with London white sugar up 4.77 percent. Rain forecast for Brazil’s Center-South cane region over the coming week could disrupt crushing at the country’s mills, curbing supplies.
Brazil is the core of the bull case. Datagro’s Plinio Nastari estimates excess rain in the Center-South may leave a record 35 million metric tons of cane standing in the fields at season’s end, and StoneX’s sugar desk told Reuters that Center-South sugar output may not reach 38 million tons against the 40 million the market expected at the season’s start.
The deficit outlook is hardening across forecasters: the International Sugar Organization projected a 2026/27 global deficit of 200,000 metric tons on September 1, Covrig Analytics sees a 300,000-ton deficit, and Czarnikow predicts a 2.9 million-ton deficit for 2027/28 as Brazilian mills divert more cane to ethanol. Thailand’s output could fall 17 percent to 10 million tons, and India — facing its weakest monsoon in a decade at 12.6 percent below average — opened a duty-free 1 million-ton import quota in August and is pushing Maharashtra mills to start crushing two weeks early ahead of Diwali.