President Trump delivered two incompatible Iran messages over the weekend. He told reporters that “very good conversations” are happening with Tehran and that the U.S. will not be “blackmailed” over the Strait of Hormuz — while the Wall Street Journal reported he told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran in November, after the November 3 midterm elections.
The military posture is moving regardless of which message is operative. The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and the Makin Island amphibious readiness group — about 9,000 personnel, 7,000 sailors and 2,000 Marines — are en route to the Middle East, joining the USS George H.W. Bush and the USS George Washington. Three carriers could be on station by the end of October, the largest concentration since April.
Tehran’s response split the difference: its Supreme National Security Council said new U.S. proposals had been put forward and were under review, while its negotiator reiterated the seven-condition framework for reopening Hormuz and the IRGC Navy kept the strait shut. Eight months in, the war is in stalemate — economic pressure hasn’t bent Iran, the blockade hasn’t opened Hormuz, and both capitals are now scheduling around the U.S. election.