Deutsche Bank’s Daniel Ghali says peak silver scarcity is over and a surplus could emerge in 2027. London commercial vaults held 914 million ounces at end-August, with 300 million ounces freely available, up 70 percent since October 2025. Solar silver use is set to fall more than 20 percent this year, with China down 33 percent.
The nuance matters: Ghali still projects spot averaging $70 an ounce by the second quarter of 2027. This is not a bearish call on price but an argument that the market’s structure is normalizing, with above-ground stocks rebuilding and industrial demand softening even as investment flows keep the price elevated.
Silver was $61.2 Tuesday morning against Monday’s record near $62. The bank’s framework will be tested by the same catalyst as copper’s: China’s October 8 reopening and whether physical demand confirms the paper bid.