Tanker freight rose 5.29% on the day, extending a 26.77% weekly surge. The move tracks the war-risk repricing across energy shipping: six vessels have been hit in or near the Strait of Hormuz since Sunday, with UKMTO logging five separate incidents Monday, while a drone sank a ship in Bulgaria’s Black Sea waters early Tuesday. See today’s Hormuz campaign and Black Sea stories.
Sovereign yields fell across the curve. The US 10-year dropped 3.8bp to 5.27%, the 5-year fell 3.8bp and the 30-year 2.5bp, as traders cut October Fed-hike odds to about 22% from 51% a week earlier on softer payrolls data. The dollar index eased 0.3% while EUR/USD ticked up. See today’s Treasury yields story.
Metals stayed bid. Silver rose 1.27%, copper added 0.97% to $6.65 a pound, and gold gained 0.83%, with the complex pricing Chinese restocking bets ahead of Thursday’s Golden Week reopening alongside haven flows from the Gulf escalation. See today’s copper and silver stories.
Energy was mixed. Brent slipped 0.52% to $99.80 a barrel and WTI eased 0.12%, refusing a war premium as physical loadings hold, while natural gas rose 1.27%. Grains firmed into harvest: corn up 1.86%, soybeans 1.35%, wheat 1.08%, with Black Sea war risk building under normal harvest progress. See today’s Black Sea and Hormuz stories.
Across markets, the read is a split screen. Freight and metals are repricing for conflict logistics and supply disruption, with tanker rates surging and copper near its highs, while sovereign rates are repricing for policy: the October Fed meeting is being written off even as December stays priced at 86%. The day ahead turns on this afternoon’s $58 billion 3-year auction, the first demand test of the “screaming good value” call, and Wednesday’s double bill of the RBI decision and FOMC minutes.