Iran’s remaining offshore crude buffer is draining fast. United Against Nuclear Iran said an estimated 9 million barrels of Iranian crude were transferred ship-to-ship in waters off Malaysia during September, drawing down inventories built up before the US blockade took effect. The group estimates no more than about 10 million barrels of Iranian crude now sit in floating storage around Malaysia’s Eastern Outside Port Limits. Iran’s crude exports have ground to a standstill: UANI tracked only three Handymax tankers crossing the blockade line in September, carrying about 1.52 million barrels of Iranian LPG and methanol, and satellite monitoring showed no crude loadings at Iranian export terminals during the month.
The blockade line has held since July 14, with no new Iranian crude making it past, UANI said. Inside the Gulf, at least 50 tankers carrying Iranian oil remain backed up along the country’s coast, mostly crude plus some products and LPG, with another 11 laden tankers anchored east of Kharg Island and no tankers seen loading there. Twenty empty Iran-flagged vessels were loitering off Sri Lanka at the end of September, unable to return to Iranian ports. Reuters separately reported October 6 that Iranian exports fell to zero in September under the blockade, while other Gulf producers recovered.
The squeeze is redirecting Iran’s last barrels east. The September transfers off Malaysia, eight ship-to-ship operations including six involving Iranian crude, were ultimately destined for Chinese independent refiners, the teapots that have been Iran’s final crude customers. Continued deliveries to China now depend on drawing down a finite stockpile rather than replacing it, UANI said. Malaysian enforcement actions around the port limits briefly scattered at least 25 ghost-fleet tankers, though some shifted operations north toward Zhuhai and Hong Kong.