The Federal Open Market Committee publishes the minutes of its September 15-16 meeting at 2pm ET today, the meeting that delivered the first Fed hike in three years, to a 4.50-4.75 percent target. Watch for the discussion around the decision, any dissent, and the staff’s view on the inflation path after September’s +29,000 payrolls print against roughly 85,000 expected. October hike odds sit near 22 percent, down from 51 percent a week ago, with December still priced at about 86 percent. Fed speakers this week: Governor Michelle Daly said AI demand shows no sign of slowing in an Axios interview, while Jeff Schmid called beating inflation “frustrating” and said there is a slow way to go.
The Treasury auctions $39 billion of 10-year notes today after Tuesday’s $58 billion 3-year sale drew the highest yield since 2006 with the weakest foreign bid since February; $22 billion of 30-year bonds follow Thursday. The 10-year yield stood at 5.27 percent Wednesday morning.
The ECB publishes its monetary-policy accounts Thursday, and France takes its first legislative act on the 2027 budget the same day after Tuesday’s 14bp OAT rally. The UK sold its 91-, 182- and 364-day T-bills; Japan’s Finance Ministry released September market operations and monetary base data; the South African Reserve Bank published its end-September gold and foreign exchange reserves; and the ECB’s quarterly survey of credit terms in euro-denominated securities financing and OTC derivatives (SESFOD) is in the field.