The Pentagon several days ago ordered US Central Command to conclude preparations for resuming major combat operations in Iran, US officials told Axios, a directive that moves a renewed campaign from contingency planning to a ready posture. President Trump has set no strike date and made no final decision, but US and Israeli sources say action could come before the November 3 midterm elections, possibly timed around Israel’s general election on October 27.
The scope under discussion is large. If operations resume, sources expect massive bombing of Iranian energy, infrastructure and nuclear targets, with the US and Israel acting in tandem and Israel taking part. The timeline of activity this week is dense: Trump held a Friday Camp David meeting on the war with his national security team, spoke Wednesday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in their second call in days, and US officials are publicly claiming control of the Strait of Hormuz. Direct talks are stalled; Qatari mediators are waiting for Tehran’s reply to a US counterproposal that demands nuclear concessions.
The Atlantic separately reported Wednesday, citing two administration officials, that the White House asked the Pentagon to develop strike options against Iranian targets that could be exercised ahead of the midterms. One Israeli official told Axios that pre-election odds of strikes are “not high” but not ruled out, rising significantly after the midterms, and that escalation could politically benefit Netanyahu given the expected Iranian missile retaliation.
The reporting carries an internal warning. Administration officials involved in the discussions cautioned that another strike could raise oil prices and endanger the roughly 50,000 American troops stationed across the region. Markets reacted Wednesday evening: the S&P 500 fell from record highs, the Nasdaq ended a five-session winning streak and the Dow dropped more than 1 percent at one point, while Brent crude whipsawed, rising about 2 percent intraday before fading. Brent remains near $110 a barrel, well above its $70 level before the war began.