Asian wheat buyers are trimming forward bookings as the shipping war whipsaws Black Sea markets, Bloomberg reported Wednesday. The pullback shows in the flow data: Kpler estimates put Russian wheat exports at about 1 million tons in September, down from 5 million a year earlier, while Ukraine shipped about 1 million tons, roughly half of last September’s level. Indonesia, the world’s second-largest wheat importer, received only about 60,000 tons from the Black Sea this month, down from half a million tons last September, and Indonesian millers are turning to Argentina and Australia, paying around 20 to 25 percent more for Australian wheat than their previous Black Sea bookings, according to traders. A senior Southeast Asian milling executive said the company was buying Australian containers but avoiding bulk cargoes because higher costs cannot be passed through to flour buyers.
The price map reflects the dislocation. Black Sea wheat from Romania is quoted around $340 per ton C&F to Southeast Asia, and Australian Premium White around $345 per ton for October shipment, roughly 25 percent higher than Black Sea wheat traded before the shipping crisis. The FAO’s latest update showed wheat prices up 6.3 percent month on month with its cereal index at the highest since August 2023, explicitly linking the move to Black Sea logistics. Independent analysts now see Russia’s 2026/27 wheat exports around 36.7 million tonnes, well below the 43 million tonnes USDA still assumes, implying a potential 6.3-million-tonne shortfall that Friday’s WASDE could begin to address.