Chile copper disruptions put 5 percent of output at risk

A new production-at-risk index covering 14 of Chile's biggest copper mines puts an average of 5.2% of expected output at risk across labour, water, weather and safety categories.

Why it matters: With nine of fourteen operations carrying at least one high-rated risk, supply risk in the world's top copper producer is rising just as output hits a fifteen-year monthly low.

Data as of October 8, 2026. Single-source from MINING.COM summarizing GEM Mining Consulting's Production-at-Risk Index; the 5.2% is an annual expected-loss exposure measure, not a forecast that output will fall. Independently verified against no second outlet yet.

GEM Mining Consulting’s first Production-at-Risk Index, covering 14 major Chilean copper operations across eight risk categories, puts an average of 5.2% of expected production at risk, roughly one in every 20 kilograms from those mines, MINING.COM reported. The index follows a turbulent few months: workers at Antofagasta’s Centinela began an indefinite strike this week after mediation failed, BHP’s Escondida shut down after a fatal accident, storms disrupted Los Pelambres and Caserones, and Codelco suspended its Andes Norte project at El Teniente over deep seismic risks. Nine of the 14 operations carry at least one risk rated high.

Chile produced 9.3% less copper in January through July versus the same period of 2025, and July output was the lowest monthly level since 2011, according to the report. El Teniente scores highest at 9% at risk, followed by Los Pelambres at 8% and Escondida at 7.5%, while labour and metallurgy-and-grades are the largest contributors to the index.

Chile copper disruptions put 5 percent of output at risk

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