The Energy Information Administration’s October Short-Term Energy Outlook raised its forecast for the average Brent price in 2026 to $96.30 a barrel, up from $91.01 in the September outlook. The fourth-quarter 2026 average is now expected at $105 a barrel, $14 higher than the agency assumed a month earlier, while the 2027 average is forecast at $84 as Middle East production and exports gradually recover. The agency tied the upgrade to persistent Middle East supply constraints, shrinking global inventories and the diesel deficit, and pointed to attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline as a factor amplifying price-volatility risk.
The EIA expects the recovery to continue through convoys in the Strait of Hormuz, bypass routes and ship-to-ship transfers, and noted that Brent remains above $100, roughly 40 percent higher than at the start of the conflict. The forecast calculations were finalized October 1, so they do not account for the G7’s October 2 coordinated stock-release announcement or this week’s IEA diesel prioritization, both of which could trim the near-term path. Either way, the official forecast now embeds $100-plus crude for the quarter that covers the northern-hemisphere heating season.