The Gulf’s recovery is redrawing India’s import map. JPMorgan said in a note this week that shipments of crude oil from the Middle East are now at 98 percent of pre-war levels, and Kpler data show flows through the Strait of Hormuz heading to India averaged about 1.3 million barrels a day in September, the highest since February before the war began. Total Middle East imports including Red Sea shipments reached about 2.8 million barrels a day. Iraq’s state marketer SOMO has been offering buyers discounts of as much as $37 a barrel below regional benchmarks for October contracted supplies, one reason Russian barrels are losing their grip. India’s total crude imports averaged roughly 5.3 million barrels a day in September, a 2026 high, while Russian arrivals eased to around 1.75 million barrels a day, the lowest since April; Moscow’s share of India’s crude fell to about 35 percent in September from 56 percent in July.
Supply mechanics are compounding the political pressure. China has been importing significant Russian volumes for three straight months, narrowing ESPO availability, and drone attacks have roughly halved loadings at Novorossiysk. Trade sources say Indian refiners are seeking UAE Murban as a Urals substitute plus Iraqi Basrah and Angolan cargoes, with one trader telling Reuters it is “not so much about the price as ensuring the cargo actually reaches its destination.” The US Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, signed into law and taking effect mid-October, gives Washington authority to impose tariffs of up to 100 percent on goods from major buyers of Russian energy, and India’s import bill already jumped 48.4 percent year over year to $74.8 billion between April and August on higher prices and freight.
Venezuela is the clearest winner. Venezuelan Merey crude sells at a discount of about $16 a barrel to ICE Brent, while freight to India’s west coast adds about $33 a barrel, and traders say Russian Urals now trades at a premium before shipping. India’s Venezuelan imports are expected to more than double to about 465,000 barrels a day in October, the highest since December 2019, though Kpler’s Sumit Ritolia expects actual deliveries closer to 350,000 barrels a day as some vessels may not discharge before month-end. Reliance Industries has become the largest buyer of Venezuelan crude outside the United States, taking 76 percent of India’s 257,000 barrels a day of Venezuelan imports in September through its Jamnagar complex. State refiners including Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Mittal are also entering the market for Venezuelan barrels. Reliance simultaneously backs the America First Refining project in Brownsville, Texas, which Trump announced in March as the first US refinery in 50 years.