Israelis will vote on October 27 in the first on-time Knesset election since 1988, and the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack has moved to the centre of the campaign. Polling suggests a close race between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his chief rival, former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the centrist Yashar party. According to the Israel Democracy Institute, over 60 percent of Israelis say their attitudes toward October 7 are a central factor in how they will vote, rising to 68 percent among the Jewish majority. Analysts caution that does not necessarily hurt Netanyahu, since hardened attitudes cut both ways.
Accountability is the fault line. Opposition figures are pressing for a formal inquiry into the security failures surrounding the attack, and families affected by October 7 have entered politics personally. Netanyahu has rejected calls for an official inquiry and is campaigning on his record through the wars and regional confrontations that followed. Haredi-draft fights, the refusal of far-right leaders to merge their lists, and kingmaker roles for smaller blocs leave coalition arithmetic genuinely uncertain.
The vote also carries regional weight. Strained talks between Netanyahu and Trump, the eroding of Democratic support in the United States ahead of the midterms, and a stalled Saudi track tied to a Palestinian horizon that Netanyahu rejects will bind whoever wins. A Yashar-led cabinet might move faster on an October 7 inquiry, conscription reform and Washington’s sequencing; a rebuilt Netanyahu coalition likely would not.
Meanwhile, the ceasefire in Gaza is fraying. BBC reported on October 8 that Gazans face continued Israeli strikes despite the ceasefire as the peace deal stalls, with more than 74,000 Palestinians killed according to the territory’s Health Ministry. The war’s conduct has barely featured in the Israeli campaign, where discussion focuses on October 7 itself, but renewed escalation in Gaza would land directly in the final stretch of the election.