Shoppers saw a 2.9 percentage point increase in inflation on the 67 tracked goods as of February due to tariffs imposed in 2025 and early 2026, the NY Fed team found; without the tariffs, prices would have pulled back by almost 1 percent. For each percentage point increase in the average tariff, consumer goods prices were higher by roughly a quarter of a percent a year later, and around 26 percent of last year’s tariff increases trickled into higher prices. Roughly two-thirds of the impact came directly from the levies and the rest from knock-on effects such as US-based companies using imported parts and materials, and annual price growth in the tracked goods peaked at the start of 2026 but elevated prices are expected to persist into 2027.
NY Fed: tariffs added 2.9 points to goods inflation
A New York Fed study found tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation on a sample of 67 everyday goods as of February, and prices would have fallen almost 1 percent without them.
Why it matters: The finding undercuts the argument that companies absorbed the tariff costs, and the pass-through is still arriving: consumers are expected to pay elevated prices into 2027.
Data as of October 8, 2026. Findings from the October 6 Liberty Street Economics paper by Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise and David Weinstein, reported by CNBC.
Sources
- Inflation on many everyday items was entirely due to tariffs, NY Fed says · CNBC · 2026-10-08
- Tariffs and US Consumer Prices · Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Liberty Street Economics · 2026-10-06