Black Sea wheat exports fell to just 1.6 million tonnes in September, down 78 percent from the same month last year and the lowest September figure since 2017, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by AXSMarine and published by Greek shipbroker Ursa. The nine-month total stands at 36.3 million tonnes, down 12 percent year-on-year, despite healthy harvest forecasts for both Russia and Ukraine.
The collapse follows a sharp widening of the maritime war beyond Ukrainian ports. Earlier this week the Turkish-owned Royad Mammadov sank after a drone attack in Romania’s exclusive economic zone, killing two seafarers; two more ships were attacked in Bulgarian waters, one sinking and one catching fire with two crew seriously injured. Maritime security firm Ambrey assessed Russian forces as the likely attackers, though no government has made an official attribution. Romania has reported more than 100 drone incursions this year near the Danube and Black Sea.
Diplomacy is going nowhere. Russia dismissed another limited maritime-truce proposal forwarded by Turkey and the United Nations, calling “piecemeal arrangements” incapable of moving toward peace, having already rejected a Ukrainian offer in August to halt attacks on civilian targets at sea. The Atlantic Council notes the EU’s proposed Black Sea Maritime Security Hub remains a concept and the trilateral mine-countermeasures group keeps an operational presence only two months a year.
The physical squeeze is severe. Ukraine exported 2.4 million tonnes of farm goods in September, just 46 percent of its potential volume, and its agriculture minister warned alternative routes can handle at most half of potential exports without the main Black Sea ports. Russia is rerouting record volumes through Baltic ports, but total Russian wheat exports are still down over 40 percent year-on-year.