The CFTC on Thursday published a proposed rule that would expressly define event contracts on sports, politics, culture and weather as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction over prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, with comments due within 30 days of Federal Register publication. In a companion interim final rule effective immediately on publication, the agency codified that casino-style gambling products, including sportsbook wagers and casino games, are excluded from the swap definition. The move lands amid a federal court split — the Third Circuit held event contracts are swaps in April, but the Ninth and Sixth Circuits went the other way in August and September — with average monthly event-contract volume running about $1.5 billion, roughly $1.2 billion of it in sports.
CFTC moves to define event contracts as swaps, exclude casino bets
The CFTC on Thursday proposed defining sports and political event contracts as swaps under federal jurisdiction while excluding casino-style gambling products in an immediately effective interim rule.
Why it matters: The paired rules would give Kalshi and Polymarket federal cover against state gambling enforcement, but courts get the last word after the Supreme Court ended agency deference.
Data as of CFTC releases, October 9, 2026, as reported by Gaming.net (opened and read in full) and corroborated by CoinDesk and BBX. Full rule text pending Federal Register publication; the proposal is marked approved subject to pre-publication technical corrections.
Sources
- Interim Final Rule: Further Definition of "Swap" to Exclude Casino-Style Gambling Products · Commodity Futures Trading Commission · 2026-10-09
- CFTC Proposes to Define Sports and Political Event Contracts as Swaps · Gaming.net · 2026-10-09