Molybdenum is on course for a sixth consecutive year of supply deficit in 2027, BMO Capital Markets analysts George Heppel, Raj Ray and Helen Amos wrote in a report published Thursday, and the metal should hit record highs in the coming year. Global demand climbed 8.5 percent to 358.2 million pounds in this year’s first half even as supply slipped 0.6 percent to 335.6 million pounds, leaving a 22.6-million-pound shortfall, according to International Molybdenum Association data cited by BMO. Prices have soared about 43 percent since January 1 to $41.97 a pound.
The supply side has no easy answer. About 60 percent of global molybdenum comes as a byproduct of copper mining, particularly in Chile and Peru, where falling copper grades, deeper mines, water shortages, permitting delays and years of underinvestment are capping growth. Chilean molybdenum production peaked in 2017 and has declined since; South American supply overall has been broadly flat for a decade. China, the dominant supplier, introduced export restrictions on the metal in February 2025, and BMO says the historic pattern of China rapidly raising primary-mine output into shortages is unlikely to repeat this time: resource depletion, tighter environmental and safety rules and a shift toward higher-value manufacturing have made Chinese supply less price-responsive. Incremental shipments from Myanmar are low-grade ore, not conventional concentrate, and Kazakhstan offers little further growth.
That matters because demand barely bends. More than 80 percent of consumption is metallurgical, tied to engineering and stainless steels, with the metal critical to energy infrastructure, refining and defense applications. Molybdenum is a small share of steel costs while providing key strength and corrosion resistance, and there is no direct substitute across its uses, so BMO says meaningful demand curtailment would likely require substantially higher prices than history has seen. Through end-2025, the cumulative global shortfall already stood at 108 million pounds, about two months of consumption.
BMO’s preferred miner is Centerra Gold, whose Thompson Creek molybdenum mine in Idaho targets production in mid-2027, one of the few listed avenues to a North American molybdenum platform. Among diversified US miners, Freeport-McMoRan has the strongest exposure through its Climax and Henderson mines in Colorado, where molybdenum accounts for 7.3 percent of revenue.