Russia’s oil product exports are recovering in volume terms but the wrong products are moving. Seaborne product exports rose in September even as diesel shipments slumped, Bloomberg reported October 8, with the cargo mix weighted toward naphtha and fuel oil while Moscow keeps most diesel at home. The government extended its diesel export ban through October 31, citing domestic fuel-market stability and harvest-season demand, and extended the ban on most bunker fuel and gasoil exports alongside it.
The ban was imposed in July after Ukrainian drone strikes dragged Russian refining runs to multiyear lows, and it has been extended repeatedly as the attacks continued. Three of Russia’s six largest diesel-producing refineries, Kirishi, Volgograd and NORSI, are shut or operating at roughly one-quarter capacity; the six plants account for about half of national diesel production. Before the restrictions, Russia accounted for roughly 10 percent of global seaborne diesel supply, and diesel exports had fallen below 1 million metric tons in June against roughly 2.5 million a month a year earlier.
The arithmetic of the crisis is visible in the European diesel premium, which Bloomberg fair-value data put around $82 a barrel over crude in late September, against about $28 a barrel at the end of February before the US-Iran war began and Ukraine stepped up refinery strikes. US diesel prices have climbed above $6 a gallon. Meanwhile Russia boosted its 2026 crude export forecast by about 150,000 barrels a day while cutting its refined-product forecast by about 500,000 barrels a day: crude that cannot be processed domestically is being diverted into the export stream, which is why crude revenues can rise even as the product balance deteriorates. August data show the pattern clearly: seaborne product exports jumped 16.4 percent month on month as refineries returned from maintenance, but were still 50 percent below August 2025 levels.