AstraZeneca details why its bone-drug Phase 3 trial failed
Life Sciences
Sunday, October 11, 2026
· Updated Oct 11, 2026 20:55
AstraZeneca's HICKORY Phase 3 trial of efzimfotase alfa missed its primary endpoint on the six-minute walk test (17.05 metres versus placebo, p=0.1675), which the company attributed to unexpectedly strong placebo results in adult-onset patients.
Why it matters: The explanation matters because AstraZeneca has pitched the drug as a $3-5 billion successor to Strensiq and the FDA is weighing approval under priority review, so whether regulators accept the trial-design argument decides the commercial case.
Data as of Sunday, October 11, 2026: Endpoints News reported AstraZeneca's trial-design explanation of the HICKORY miss (article opened; paywalled beyond the headline and lede). Trial numbers and context corroborated via Fierce Biotech and AstraZeneca's own release. Single-origin reporting on the company's explanation: treat it as AstraZeneca's account until the medical-meeting data are published in full.
AstraZeneca shared new details on its failed HICKORY Phase 3 trial of efzimfotase alfa, an enzyme replacement therapy for the rare bone disease hypophosphatasia, saying the study missed its primary endpoint largely because the placebo group with adult-onset disease performed better than expected. The drug achieved a least-squares mean difference of 17.05 metres on the six-minute walk test at week 25 versus placebo, falling short of statistical significance (p=0.1675). In a post hoc analysis, 45.2 percent of treated patients reached a clinically meaningful improvement compared with 30.0 percent on placebo, and secondary measures of physical function, pain and fatigue favored the drug, the company said.
The data arrive as the FDA reviews efzimfotase alfa under priority review, with a decision expected in the first half of 2027. The therapy is AstraZeneca’s next-generation successor to Strensiq, which sold $1.7 billion last year but is approved only for infantile- and juvenile-onset disease, and the company has cited peak-sales potential of $3 billion to $5 billion for the new drug.
Sources
- AstraZeneca blames trial design for Phase 3 failure of bone disease drug · Endpoints News · 2026-10-11
- AstraZeneca posts phase 3 bone disease data on Strensiq heir · Fierce Biotech · 2026-10-11
- Efzimfotase alfa showed numerical improvement in 6-Minute Walk Test achieving mean difference of 17.05 metres vs placebo in HICKORY Ph3 trial · AstraZeneca (via MFN.se) · 2026-10-10