Brent crude futures for December fell $1.17, or 1.12 percent, to $103.55 a barrel by Monday morning Moscow time, Interfax reported, after Friday’s session closed at $104.72 with a 42-cent gain. November WTI fell $1.35, or 1.47 percent, to $90.50, following Friday’s close at $91.85. Reuters put the Monday decline slightly wider by 0154 GMT: Brent down $1.54 to $103.18 and WTI down $1.54 to $90.31, with ICE gasoil futures off 3 percent at $1,436 a barrel.
The driver was the weekend’s diplomacy. Traders priced expectations that the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire announced by Trump would add Russian diesel and crude back to global markets, on top of Friday’s news that Russia would immediately ship more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel to US and world markets, with another 500,000 tons in November and a further 1 million tons soon after. KCM Trade analyst Tim Waterer said the announcements eased some immediate supply pressure but cautioned that questions over the ceasefire’s validity would keep any pullback limited.
The Middle East kept a floor under the slide. Reuters noted the conflict continued to support Brent above $100, with weekend tanker strikes in Hormuz threatening the September recovery in regional crude exports, and the Houthi strikes on Riyadh airport pulling the Saudi-US war axis wider. Shell, Chevron and BP were redeploying crews to restore Gulf of Mexico production after Hurricane Isaias made landfall Saturday.
Analysts are splitting the difference. Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $90 a barrel from $85 while estimating the Middle East risk premium at just over $20, and forecast WTI at $81 in December and $73 on average in 2027, noting WTI’s unusual discount to Brent reflects high US-Europe shipping costs. BMI’s Cedric Chehab told CNBC the Iran war distance means Brent stays above $100 for months, with a US-Iran deal unlikely before the end of the first quarter of 2027, keeping pressure on inflation and monetary policy.