OPEC cuts 2026 oil demand growth forecast to 400,000 barrels a day

Commodities Monday, October 12, 2026 · Updated Oct 12, 2026 12:51

OPEC has cut its forecast for world oil demand growth this year to 400,000 barrels a day, down from 1.4 million barrels a day at the start of the year, Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said Monday in Riyadh.

Why it matters: The downgrade, to less than a third of the year's opening forecast, undercuts the demand side of an oil market already priced on war disruption, and it lands while Brent holds above $100 on Gulf supply risk rather than consumption strength.

Data as of Monday, October 12, 2026. Al Ghais remarks at the WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh per Reuters, corroborated by Antara, in Indonesian. Developing item, 2 to 3 sentences by design.

OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais told the WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh on Monday that the group now expects world oil demand to grow by 400,000 barrels a day this year, down from the 1.4 million barrels a day it projected at the start of 2026, a revision he described as in line with how the year has developed. Al Ghais said the demand deferred from 2026 is expected to show up in 2027 as pent-up consumption.

The cut is a statement about the world economy, not about supply: it arrives with oil prices elevated by the Hormuz disruption and the attacks on Saudi infrastructure, so the market is carrying a war premium on top of a weakening consumption outlook.

Sources

OPEC cuts 2026 oil demand growth forecast to 400,000 bpd, sees pent-up demand in 2027 · Reuters, via BOE Report · 2026-10-12
OPEC pangkas proyeksi pertumbuhan permintaan minyak ke 400 ribu barel (OPEC cuts its oil demand growth projection to 400 thousand barrels) · Antara (in Indonesian) · 2026-10-12