Tuesday, October 13
India September CPI. The September consumer inflation print lands in a week already stacked with RBI liquidity operations. Going in: a Reuters poll of 41 economists (October 5-7) has the median at 5.40% year on year, up from 4.82% in August, with forecasts ranging from 4.90% to 5.90% and core seen near 4.3%. Wells Fargo expects 5.65% led by food and fuel. The RBI raised the repo rate to 5.50% on October 7, its first hike in nearly four years, shifted its stance to “calibrated tightening,” and has the rupee pinned after it hit a record low of 97.15 intraday on October 7. A surprise counts as anything above 5.90%, which would cement another hike in December, or anything below about 5%, which would cool hike bets and give the rupee breathing room.
France: National Assembly begins 2027 budget debate. The Assembly opens debate on the draft 2027 budget presented October 1 by PM Lecornu: a EUR 54B adjustment with a deficit target of 5.0% of GDP in 2027 against 5.4% expected in 2026. Going in: ING sees the most likely path as a modified budget forced through with Article 49.3 rather than a straight parliamentary agreement, given the absence of a majority. The OAT-Bund spread is holding near 141bp after briefly piercing 140bp, its widest since the 2012 euro crisis, and French CDS trade near 87bp. The calendar piles up fast: the Part I revenue vote on October 20, Moody’s review on October 23, the ECB decision on October 29. A surprise counts as a failed vote or a successful no-confidence motion, which would blow the spread past the 2012-era records and raise contagion risk to Italy and Spain, or a genuine cross-party compromise, which would narrow spreads sharply and lift the euro.
Wednesday, October 14
US September CPI. The 8:30am ET release is the last big inflation read before the October 27-28 FOMC. Going in: consensus has headline at +0.6% month on month (from +0.4%) and 3.6 to 3.7% year on year (from 3.4%), with core at +0.2% month on month (from +0.3%) and 2.5% year on year (from 2.4%). The Cleveland Fed nowcast sits at 3.60% headline and 2.39% core. Markets price roughly 85% odds of at least one hike by December, with October hike odds near 34 to 38%. A surprise counts as core at 0.3% or above, or headline above 3.7%, which would rebuild October hike odds past 50%, versus a soft pair (headline near 3.6% with core at 0.2% or below), which cements the hold and pushes the hike path to December. The Fed’s Beige Book lands at 2pm the same day; bank earnings continue with Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.
Thursday, October 15
EU leaders summit, day one (through Friday). The two-day European Council in Brussels judges Trade Commissioner Sefcovic’s Beijing talks (October 8-9 with Wang Wentao). Going in: he demanded “tangible results” on a goods deficit running above EUR 1B a day and on China’s rare-earth export curbs, while von der Leyen told Parliament the EU would use all its tools to rebalance the relationship. The summit also inherits a second fault line after Parliament’s budget rapporteurs rejected the Irish EU-budget negotiating box. A surprise counts as concrete Chinese concessions (an export cap, an extended rare-earth truce), which would lift autos and chemicals sentiment, or stonewalling, which pushes leaders toward harsher trade instruments with the November 10 moratorium expiry as the clock.
Conab October grain survey. Brazil’s 10th crop survey of the 2026/27 season. Going in: corn sits at 479.8c in the post-WASDE flush and soybeans near 1,292c; this is the next physical checkpoint for corn, soy and sugar after the USDA reset. A surprise counts as materially bigger Brazil production estimates, which would keep longs wrong-footed and press corn further, or a cut, which flips the bearish script.
Friday, October 16
Q3 cocoa grind. Europe and North America report third-quarter grind figures. Going in: NY cocoa trades near $5,605/t after a third straight weekly loss on season surplus; the grind is the demand verdict that adjudicates the surplus story. A surprise counts as a strong grind, which would signal demand resilience and squeeze the crowded bearish read, or a weak grind, which confirms the surplus narrative.
Euro area September HICP, final. The final September print follows the 3.8% flash, above the 3.6% consensus and the hottest since September 2023. Going in: October 29 ECB hike odds sit below 30% after Lagarde’s dovish slant, and MUFG’s “energy-only” reading of the surprise is what let markets fade a back-to-back hike. A surprise counts as an upward revision or sticky core and services, which would reprice October hike odds, versus confirmation of the energy-only story, which keeps the fade intact.
Sunday, October 18
Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act: implementation deadline. The administration’s deadline to implement provisions of the law signed September 18, 2026, which authorizes sanctions on vessels moving Russian energy to evade sanctions and on people tied to Russian energy projects including Yamal LNG. Going in: EU imports of Yamal LNG hit a record 12.18 Mt in January-September 2026, and tanker and LNG markets are watching the scope of enforcement. A surprise counts as broad vessel designations, which would spike tanker rates and force LNG rerouting, or a narrow and quiet implementation, which would relieve shipping pressure.
Also on the tape
Monday is Columbus Day: the bond market is closed, equities are open. The RBI’s Rs 2,00,000 crore 3-day VRRR auction settles Monday with reversal October 15, and its Rs 25,000 crore OMO sale lands Tuesday. Bank earnings open Tuesday before the bell (JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup), with TSMC reporting Thursday. September retail sales and PPI hit Thursday morning; September industrial production lands Friday.