Wheat declined for a fourth day after Trump said Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an immediate energy ceasefire, raising hopes that an easing of hostilities could reduce Black Sea disruptions. Futures fell as much as 1.3 percent in Chicago before paring losses, ending down 0.7 percent at $6.66 a bushel by 11:45 AM Singapore time. Russia and Ukraine together account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports, making the Black Sea critical to world supplies. Corn futures were steady and soybeans fell 1 percent to $12.78 a bushel.
The market is trading the de-escalation theme more than the energy detail. Futures International’s Joe Davis said the energy component was not the direct driver; rather, the general theme of de-escalation was weighing on prices. Bearish USDA signals compounded the move: corn posted its biggest drop in three years Friday after the agency unexpectedly raised yield and production forecasts, and the selloff spilled into wheat, which fell 3.2 percent that day. Davis added that harvest pressure over the next month would make a rally hard.
The pricing assumes a truce that may not exist. Moscow has not confirmed the ceasefire, Kyiv said it was still awaiting details, and the Financial Times reported Monday that Zelenskyy says Putin is already breaching it. Escalating hostilities and strikes on port infrastructure in recent weeks have severely disrupted shipments, forcing Asian and African buyers to seek alternatives over longer routes at higher premiums. An energy ceasefire would not automatically protect grain infrastructure or commercial vessels, so a sustained drop in wheat’s geopolitical premium depends on shipping actually becoming safer.