China’s September data landed stronger than economists expected on both trade and factory prices. Exports rose 36.3 percent from a year earlier in dollar terms to $447.18 billion, the fastest pace since February, up from 25.0 percent growth in August and well ahead of the 25.5 percent median forecast in a Reuters poll, while imports jumped 31.0 percent to $313.66 billion, beating the 24.5 percent forecast and accelerating from 28.2 percent in August. The trade surplus widened to $133.53 billion from $119.09 billion in August, above the $118.10 billion expected and the largest since January 2025, and the surplus with the United States rose to $34.01 billion from $29.18 billion.
The price data told the other half of the story. The producer price index rose 5.0 percent year on year, the fastest pace since June 2022, up from 3.8 percent in August and above the 4.5 percent poll forecast, as higher fuel prices pushed up costs in fuel processing, chemicals and non ferrous metals. Consumer inflation stayed muted by contrast: the CPI rose 0.9 percent, just under the 1.0 percent forecast and up from 0.8 percent in August, with gasoline prices up 16.6 percent on the year doing much of the work and core inflation unchanged at 1.0 percent.
The pattern is the one running through China’s year. Global demand for AI related goods has kept orders flowing to Chinese factories, and the extended trade truce with the United States, rolled back tariffs on $30 billion of goods each way and stretched to January, has steadied the largest bilateral relationship. Domestic demand has not matched it, which is why a factory gate surge driven by imported energy costs is passing through to export prices rather than to Chinese shop prices.
For markets, the release cuts two ways. Stronger imports argue against the weakest readings of Chinese demand, but the surplus is the headline: $938.51 billion in the first nine months of the year, on track to top $1 trillion for a second year and to surpass last year’s $1.2 trillion record, keeping the overcapacity argument alive in Washington and Brussels. Capital Economics expects the producer price pressure to fade next year as the commodity shock passes; while it lasts, it is one more channel carrying the Middle East conflict into the price of goods everywhere else.