New Zealand’s governing National Party and opposition Labour are level in polling reported by Bloomberg on Tuesday, less than a month before the general election on November 7. Bloomberg’s headline gives the tie but the full survey detail sits behind its paywall, so this story does not state vote shares for the newest poll.
The context from the last fully reported survey is tight enough to make a tie plausible. An RNZ Reid Research poll of 1,000 eligible voters conducted from September 24 to October 1, reported by Reuters, put National at 25.9 percent, its weakest since 2020, Labour at 30.8 percent and the Greens at 14.8 percent, with the Opportunity Party at 5.5 percent, just above the threshold to enter parliament without an electorate seat. On those numbers neither bloc could govern alone and Opportunity would hold the balance.
Under New Zealand’s proportional system the election is rarely decided by the largest party alone. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has previously said National was unlikely to work with Opportunity because of its tax policies, which narrows his own coalition options if the small party is again pivotal.
Polls are surveys, not results, and a 3.1 point margin of error in the Reid Research survey covers much of the gap between the blocs. The dated fact is the election itself on November 7 and the coalition talks that will follow it. Status: reported polling, election scheduled.