The industry’s patent cliff is better described as a series of waves. More than 500 billion dollars in worldwide prescription drug sales are potentially at risk from generic competition between 2026 and 2032, according to Norstella forecasting data provided by Evaluate and published October 12. Sales at risk is a ceiling, not a loss forecast: patent expiry dates, geography, the speed of generic or biosimilar entry and lifecycle management all decide how much revenue actually erodes.
The near-term wave belongs to Merck. Sales at risk reach 99 billion dollars in 2028 alone, 6.5 percent of the worldwide prescription market, the year Keytruda approaches patent expiry. Merck has responded with lifecycle moves including the subcutaneous version of Keytruda approved by the FDA last September, and with dealmaking: 30.9 billion dollars across six announced deals since the start of 2024, the highest spend in Evaluate’s comparison.
The larger wave lands later. The single biggest year in the forecast is 2031, at 158 billion dollars. AbbVie’s exposure rises sharply in the early 2030s as Rinvoq and Skyrizi lose protection, with roughly 50 billion dollars of one-year sales exposure shown for AbbVie in 2032. Evaluate also flags J&J exposure building in 2027 and 2028 around Imbruvica and Darzalex, Sanofi pressure around Praluent and Dupixent in 2029 and 2030, and an AstraZeneca cluster including Imfinzi, Tagrisso, Calquence, Farxiga and Saphnelo in the early 2030s. The obesity blockbusters sit farther out: Ozempic is the first expected to face competition, while Mounjaro does not come under pressure until the mid-2030s.
The deal tally shows the response is already funded. Since the start of 2024, Evaluate counts 27.2 billion dollars across nine Lilly deals, 22.3 billion for AbbVie, 20.4 billion for J&J, 16.1 billion for Sanofi and 6.8 billion for AstraZeneca. Read alongside today’s other stories, the pattern is consistent: companies are buying platforms, radiopharmaceuticals and cell therapies years before the revenue they are meant to replace actually disappears.