Norway’s governor on the slow last mile. In her annual autumn lecture, published by the BIS on Tuesday, Norges Bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache set out three reasons disinflation is taking so long: the post-pandemic global price shock also lifted Norway’s export prices and fed wage growth that now sustains inflation; services prices rarely fall, which itself prolongs the process; and high inflation can shift expectations in ways that add persistence. She also noted the deliberate trade-off: more aggressive tightening would have brought inflation down faster, at greater cost to employment.
Japan lines up 20-year supply. Japan’s Ministry of Finance announced the 20-year JGBs to be issued in October, the next long-end supply point for a market where the 10-year yield has been driven by BoJ normalisation and heavy issuance. The announcement is a calendar item rather than a result, but long-end JGB auctions have become a regular global rates spillover channel this year.
Dollar eases from its high. The dollar index fell 0.22% to 102.35 in the morning data, retreating from a 17-month high as yields and oil softened, with EUR/USD down 0.27% to 1.1183 on the day in the same table, a reminder that the euro leg is being driven by the France spread story as much as by the dollar itself. GBP/USD rose 0.08% to 1.3239 and USD/JPY was flat at 158.07.
Prediction markets call a sticky peak. Prediction markets judge that inflation likely peaked for 2026 but will remain sticky, CNBC reported Monday, a market-based version of the same last-mile argument. A separate survey of economists reported by CFO Dive found respondents judging borrowing costs still too low to cool inflation, with AI-driven demand among the forces keeping price pressure alive.
BIS on the signalling value of projections. The BIS also published work on the signalling value of the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections on Tuesday, a timely companion to Governor Waller’s recent argument that the projections should signal a likely cumulative move while leaving the pace to the data. The SEP debate matters for pricing because it decides how much of the December hike probability is guidance and how much is market inference.
What is still ahead today. Fed Governor Waller was on yesterday’s speaker slate in the calendar and US existing home sales and the Treasury statement land later Tuesday, but the week’s pricing events remain Wednesday’s CPI and Beige Book. Nothing in Tuesday’s smaller items changes that hierarchy.